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A Dynamic Optimal Crop Rotation Model in Acreage Response AgEcon
Cai, Ruohong; Bergstrom, John C.; Mullen, Jeffrey D.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
This paper presents a dynamic crop rotation model that shows how crop yield and price volatility could impact crop mix and acreage response under crop rotation considerations. Specifically, a discrete Markov decision model is utilized to optimize producers’ crop rotation decision within a finite horizon. By maximizing net present value of expected current and future profits, a modified Bellman equation helps develop optimum planting decisions. This model is capable of simulating crop rotations with different lengths and structures. Specifically, the corn-soybeans rotations were simulated using the crop rotation model.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop rotation; Acreage response; Bellman equation; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103949
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ACREAGE RESPONSE UNDER FARM PROGRAMS FOR MAJOR SOUTHEASTERN FIELD CROPS AgEcon
Duffy, Patricia A.; Shalishali, Kasazi; Kinnucan, Henry W..
An expected utility model that includes output price and yield uncertainty was used to estimate cotton, corn, and soybean acreage response equations for the Southeast. The model appeared to fit the soybean and corn data well, resulting in own-price elasticity estimates of 0.317 for corn and 0.727 for soybeans. When applied to cotton acreage, however, the model did not yield satisfactory results. When elasticity was allowed to change over time, however, statistical results for the cotton equation improved, yielding an own-price elasticity of 0.915 at data means.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Government programs; Acreage response; Expected utility; Time-varying parameters; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1994 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15163
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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Farm Production and Profitability: Dynamic Simulation Approach AgEcon
Cai, Ruohong; Bergstrom, John C.; Mullen, Jeffrey D.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
In this paper, a dynamic optimization model was developed to simulate how farm-level realized price and profitability respond to yield change which was induced by climate change. Producers' acreage response was included in the dynamic model considering crop rotation effect. In the crop rotation model, a modified Bellman equation was used to dynamically optimize the net present value of farm profit for a five-year interval. This simulation process was repeated through the year 2050. Then yield, price, and acreage response were compiled to generate realized profit. Results generally indicated that reduction in crop yields due to climate change results in reduced farm profitability for most of the states studied. Predicted climate change is more likely to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamic simulation model; Acreage response; Crop rotation; Expected price; Realized price; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103420
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Factors Affecting Hay Supply and Demand in Tennessee AgEcon
Bazen, Ernest F.; Roberts, Roland K.; Travis, John; Larson, James A..
Understanding the interactions between supply and demand for hay is important because of hay’s significance to the agricultural sector and economy, and because hay is an important crop on highly erodible soils. As an example, Tennessee has the most erodible cultivated cropland in the United States (Denton, 2000), nearly half of the state’s current CRP acreage contracts are set to expire in 2007 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2006), and hay is one of the most economically important crops produced in the state (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2004). Cross (1999) attributed the upward trend in Tennessee hay acreage since 1980 to an increasing number of farmers who were searching for alternative production activities, such as hay, pasture and livestock, to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Derived demand; Elasticities; Hay; Inverse demand function; Price flexibilities; Yield response; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; D.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6889
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Forecasting Irrigation Water Demand: A Case Study on the Flint River Basin in Georgia AgEcon
Banerjee, Swagata (Ban); Tareen, Irfan Y.; Gunter, Lewell F.; Bramblett, Jimmy; Wetzstein, Michael E..
Southeast drought conditions have accentuated the demand for irrigation in the face of restricted water supply. For allocating this supply, Georgia held an auction for withdrawing irrigated acreage. This auction withdrew 33,000 acres from irrigation, resulting in a physical estimate of a 399 acre-feet daily increase in water flow. The actual reduction is driven by crop distributional changes on the basis of economic substitution and expansion effects. In contrast to the physical estimates, an econometric model that considers these effects is developed. The differences between the physical and econometric models result in an increase in the estimate of water savings of around 19% to 24%.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Crop distribution; Irrigated acreage; Irrigation; Slippage; Water demand; Water saving; Q12; Q24.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37053
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FORECASTING IRRIGATION WATER DEMAND: A STRUCTURAL AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AgEcon
Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Paudel, Laxmi; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; Paudel, Biswo Nath; Devkota, Nirmala.
An expected utility model was developed to capture the impacts of wealth, other economic, and institutional factors on irrigation acreage allocation decisions. Predicted water demand is derived from an expected utility structural model and various ARIMA models. No significant differences arise between forecasted irrigation acreage and, thereby, amount of forecasted water demand between econometric and time series models. However, estimates of water demand differ significantly from a Blaney-Criddle-based physical model. Keywords: water forecasting, acreage response, water slippage, BC formula
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Water forecasting; Acreage response; Water slippage; BC formula; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22109
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Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Arnade, Carlos Anthony.
This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Elasticities; Field crops; Semi-nonparametric; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103240
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Measuring the Effects of Decoupled Payments on Indica Rice Production Under the 1996 and 2002 Farm Bills AgEcon
Becker, Anthony D.; Judge, Rebecca P..
As a heavily subsidized crop with significant exports, rice bears at least a superficial similarity to upland cotton, which causes some to speculate that current rice policy exposes the U.S. to the same WTO sanctions as were levied in 2005 against U.S. cotton subsidies. This paper examines the impact of decoupled payments on U.S. indica rice production in the southern states of Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana and Texas, a region chosen because it accounts for nearly all U.S. rice exports to Central and South America. Using Arellano’s and Bond’s generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique for dynamic panel models on county-level data, we find that both direct and counter-cyclical payments exert significant, positive effects on...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Rice policy; Farm commodity programs; Acreage response; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120073
Registros recuperados: 8
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